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Discussion Starter #1
According to the news china is about to pass an anti-Secession law. As you probably know China considers Tiawan part of its country in rebellion. Also the US has a treaty with Tiawan to protect it from aggression by China. China's president told the people to be ready for war when the law passes. BTW one reason the US had ties its self economically to china is to try preventing China attacking Tiawan thus causing a war with the US. The "smart people" argued it would gut chinas economy if we were ties closly with them, we went to war, and suddenly stoped trade with them. here is the link.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u ... egislature
 

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It ain't just the US that would stop trade against them either, but a lot of other countries allied with you guys. They can't afford it.

That and they could only fight in Taiwan...They can't come here, so...

Depends how much Taiwan is worth to them and I doubt its that much.
 

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re

According to Jane's China is rasing its real military spending by 12-13% this next financial year as well. Combined with the EU trying to lift the arms embargo on them, China is certainly flexing her muscles.

Taiwan is very valuable to China, Taiwan having a strong economy. That said, Taiwan may actually be better for China being independant, allowing for China to have a lot of external trade with them.

Personally I can't see America intervening if China does alunch a full out invasion of the island, it would be too costly in lives and equipment.
 

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Hey, thats a point I hadn't thought of really...Why is Taiwan that important to the US?

I know we do a lot of business and trade with them but I doubt it would be worth a scrap with China. We're giving Taiwan a lot of aid anyway.

In a way I guess China could see that as hostile, but I don't think China wants a fight with any of us. I don't think we want to have a go with them either really.

They had a lot of border skirmishes with Russia but nothing big ever came of that...Then again they're better armed and equipped now...But I think if they wanted Taiwan that badly they'd have it already.
 

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Muzzleblast said:
Hey, thats a point I hadn't thought of really...Why is Taiwan that important to the US?

I know we do a lot of business and trade with them but I doubt it would be worth a scrap with China. We're giving Taiwan a lot of aid anyway.

In a way I guess China could see that as hostile, but I don't think China wants a fight with any of us. I don't think we want to have a go with them either really.

They had a lot of border skirmishes with Russia but nothing big ever came of that...Then again they're better armed and equipped now...But I think if they wanted Taiwan that badly they'd have it already.
Its not that taiwan is important to us, we're contractually obligated to save their ass if china comes in. Its that fact that has kept china from doing anythying so far.
 

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If China does invade, to be successful they will have to win the war in a very short time frame, before international pressure becomes overwhelming, and before America can pre-position enough assets to do anything about it.

There isn't a chance of America assaulting the islands when China has already taken them.
 

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Not only would the US defend Taiwan... so would dozens of other countries. Remember what happened in 1990 - 91? No one thought any one would stop Saddam from conquring the whole middle east... look how many nations stood up against him. We have beaten China before... we will do it again if we have to.

BC
 

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spade said:
Its not that taiwan is important to us, we're contractually obligated to save their ass if china comes in.
I think that's the biggy, but even if we didn't have a treaty, I'd hope we'd protect 'em anyhow out of principle: the more of Asia that democratizes, the better off the world becomes.

You wanted a chance at a full-blown war Yimmy... this might be it! ;-)

Scatch Maroo
 

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Dont forget how much military power we (the US) have stationed in Japan... not to mention all of our mobile fleets. Also... the 82nd Airborne has a BRT (Battalion Ready Team) ready to go anywhere in the world within 24 hours. The whole 82nd Airborne Division can be anywhere in the world within 72 hours. This would be another one of those modern day conflicts where the big ol US is protecting a small almost helpless country in need of help... and i beleive we would have lots of support. Remember... the US is not the only one commited to stoping the demize of democracy world wide. Hopefully nothing happens... and if it does happen i dont see it happening very soon... we should be out of Iraq by the end of this year (judging by the rate of iraqi police and military training). Of course... we will more than likely always have a small force in Iraq... as we always will in Afghanistan. As far as China goes... we have been training for this for years... Operation Cobra Gold has been around for a while now... and we know how to react to such a threat.

For those of you who dont know... Operation Cobra Gold is a multi national operation in wich the US and a dozen or so of other Countries practice for another large scale war in Asia. Royal Thia Military... Philipino Military... Japanese Defense Force... Taiwan Military... British Military... Australian Military... and the US Military are the major groups in Operation Cobra Gold.

BC
 

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Discussion Starter #10
Lets not forget China does not have a very large or capable naval force. Last I heard they were not capable of invading Tiawan due to this, but they were trying to build it up. That was a few years ago, and things may have changed. While it would still be a battle on the sea, out naval forces can not be equaled at this present time. The ugly part is if it went nuclear. One briefing I sat in on someone stated it wasn't a matter of if but when we went at it with china. This was 92 or so. They also mentioned it was a matter of time before Terrorism hit here with NBC.
 

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Re: re

Yimmy said:
If China does invade, to be successful they will have to win the war in a very short time frame, before international pressure becomes overwhelming
I dont think the Chinese military can outrun missles and long range fire from the navy. Our airforce pilots would have to stop watching thier satellite TV for a couple days dealing with the air threat- they would be pissed about that, and as such, anxcious to stick it to the Chinese.

All-in-all a clusterfuck of huge proportions for everyone. China might be that stupid... but who knows.
 

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Re: re

subThermal said:
China might be that stupid... but who knows.
Personally... I think there leaders have some type of death wish... "go out with a bang"... insanity. Its like david vs goliath... but david doesnt have his stone. :roll: Still... never under-estimate your enemies. China has a somewhat capable land force... but there tactics are far outdated.

BC
 

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China has for years been building a sizeable portfolio of high performance aircraft, Soviet-designed destroyers and guided missile frigates as well as submarines and other blue-water vessels. Most importantly for OUR naval craft, they have purchased a quantity of the "Sunburn" anti-ship missiles and these are fully operational. These missiles are super-sonic with advanced targeting ability and are capable of evading our most advanced ship-board defense systems. This in combination with China's build up of land-based missiles along the Formosa Straights gives them a formidable capability to wreak havoc with any attack force we send to defend Taiwan. I seriously doubt that they could defeat a unilateral defense put up by the US much less a coalition of multiple nations, but that isn't what matters. What matters is whether or not they THINK they can win. They moment they THINK they can win, you can count on an attack. The other driving factor behind this is the fact that the hard-liners MUST prevail on this highly public issue inorder to remain in power. If they perceive that they are in danger of losing their power, they will in all probability launch an immediate attack. At that point, in their minds, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The economic factors that everone points to as a reason that China will NOT attack Taiwan mean nothing to a desperate leadership. If they can't have Taiwan, no one will. Remember what the Iraqi troops did to the Kuwait oilfields as they retreated?!! Chinese leadership will be no more restrained than Hussein and will probably be much worse. China has been building her military for years not for a "possible" confrontation with the US and its allies, but for the expected inevitabilty of such a conflict. To them, it's not a matter of if, but when. All in all not a comforting scenario!!

K2
 

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K2 said:
China has for years been building a sizeable portfolio of high performance aircraft, Soviet-designed destroyers and guided missile frigates as well as submarines and other blue-water vessels. Most importantly for OUR naval craft, they have purchased a quantity of the "Sunburn" anti-ship missiles and these are fully operational. These missiles are super-sonic with advanced targeting ability and are capable of evading our most advanced ship-board defense systems. This in combination with China's build up of land-based missiles along the Formosa Straights gives them a formidable capability to wreak havoc with any attack force we send to defend Taiwan. I seriously doubt that they could defeat a unilateral defense put up by the US much less a coalition of multiple nations, but that isn't what matters. What matters is whether or not they THINK they can win. They moment they THINK they can win, you can count on an attack. The other driving factor behind this is the fact that the hard-liners MUST prevail on this highly public issue inorder to remain in power. If they perceive that they are in danger of losing their power, they will in all probability launch an immediate attack. At that point, in their minds, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. The economic factors that everone points to as a reason that China will NOT attack Taiwan mean nothing to a desperate leadership. If they can't have Taiwan, no one will. Remember what the Iraqi troops did to the Kuwait oilfields as they retreated?!! Chinese leadership will be no more restrained than Hussein and will probably be much worse. China has been building her military for years not for a "possible" confrontation with the US and its allies, but for the expected inevitabilty of such a conflict. To them, it's not a matter of if, but when. All in all not a comforting scenario!!

K2

The SSN-22 Sunburn (P-80 Zubr) is a hypersonic light anti ship missile... sounds great right? Not really... it lacks over the horizon capability and is drilled with software problems. As far as the ability to evade our detection and anti missile software / hardware... the missile its self was designed quite some time ago... and as far as i know hasnt been updated by anyone. On the other hand... the US Navy is constantly updating its anti missile equipment. Ever seen the SEAWIZ (however you spell it) ? (20mm GUA variant firing around 6,000 RPM cyclic) That was specifically designed for killing russian designed SSN series anti ship missiles.

The only thing's that would alarm me is if China had bought :

1: the Russian plans to the SSN-X-24 Scorpion (P-750 Grom) wich is a long range (over the horizon capable) cruise missile used for anti ship perposes. Allthough... the development program was stoped due to funding problems and once again... software problems.

2: The P-1000 Vulkan (nato designation unkown to me) Hypersonic heavy anti-ship missile meant for replacing the P-500 and P-700.

3: S-10 (Granat) Soviet copy of the US Tomahawk strategic cruise missile.

4: Kh-35 Uran (SSN-X-25 Switchblade) Soviet copy of the US Harpoon anti-ship missile.

5: P-40 (nato designation unkown to me) Long-range anti-ship version of P-35 Bazalt missile to arm converted Sverdlov class cruisers.

Keep in mind these are all Russian manufactured missiles that were designed pre Soviet demize... The technology they use is far outdated.

If i have made any errors feel free to correct me.

BC
 

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I just hope that the next U.S. administration has the guts to stand up to China, and doesn't try to appease them by giving up on Taiwan, as we've seen with Nazi Germany that appeasement is not a very good foreign policy. :-\ My bet is China's more likely to act if Mr. Hilary Clinton is in office than someone who has principles upon which to stand.

Scatch Maroo
 

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Hopefully people arnt stupid enough to vote in a person who has totally jacked up every job she has taken since graduation of high school...

BC
 

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For my 2 cents.

http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?ty ... ID=7895276

The above link is to Reuters, quoting that, "China passed a law Monday granting itself the right to attack Taiwan if it moves toward formal independence, drawing protests from the island and a rebuke from Washington." How they asses what is moving towards formal independence depends on how much they want a war I would assume - anything as small as Taiwan buying American weaponry could be so deemed it.

In addition to this new law, China is increasing her real defence spending, she is seaking advanced new weaponry from Russia and the EU, is moving her military into being self sufficient through copying foreign technology, and is focussing on placing ballistic missiles in range of Taiwan and making a blue water navy. Everything points to a real desire to invade. China already has a potent naval force, with many amphibious assets, however she dopes lack in troop aircraft, and fleet air defence and in other areas.

I do not believe China to be stupid, what I do believe is that they will either consolidate their position fast enough as for the United States to be unwilling to act upon it, or pull out on the first sign of failure. China does not want a full blown war with the USA, for I think obvious reasons, no great power wants a war with another great power where there is a risk of losing. Taiwan on the other hand needs Americas help, quiet frankly from what I gather their military is pants, and largelly outdated equipment wise - you can not compare Taiwan and China to South Korea and North Korea, China is more advanced than North Korea, while Taiwan is not nearly as capable as South Korea. While Taiwan needs American assistance, I do not believe any AMerican administration will want a war with China. I say this as for the same reason as for China, nobody wants a full scale conflict, and while a small scale conflict (be it high intensity) around Taiwan proper may be acceptable, will the economic damage be acceptable? America and the UN etc, would have to place embargos on China if (when?) she invades - but will they be real embargos, or token embargos, to make it look like they are taking action when they infact are not? I say this, as China is a powerful economic enterty herself, nobody can boast as much cheap labour, and as such China can place embargos in return, which in turn would damage the EU's and Americas economies.

If China does invade Taiwan, I believe China will quickly overwhelm the defenders. From what I have read, I believe a large proportion of the Taiwan population are of Han Chinese decent, and so are largelly in favour of mainland China, leading to moral to fight them being poor - in addition to this as I previously said, the Taiwan military is useless. They do not have many F16's or aircraft of similar capability, and their best (French) naval assets use out dated defence systems, such as Crotale. Mainland China on the other hand have hundreds of ballistic missiles in range of Taiwan, easily capable of overwhelming Taiwans air defence systems in a sudden strike, along with which they have the largest airforce in the world, and Taiwan is not far away. Although Chinas most common aircraft is still the J7, they also have more modern types such as Su27's, Su30's and J10's appearing in growing numbers. China also has a large army, and more importantly a large marine corpse with supporting armour, and amphibious ships to carry many of them. Although lacking in surface vessles, China has dozens of deisel submarines, including modern types such as Kilos and Songs as well as the old Romeos and Mings - these are all capable of discreately placing mind fields and the likes.

I honestly do not believe America would get involved in a real way - what administration is going to want to throw away so many American lives, especially with the common media so happy to bring up memories of Vietnam? I think more likely is a token response, to hopefully get China to back down, and if that fails, tokan ambargos and a lot of political screaming. America simply would not do anything quickly - having battalions ready to drop in 24 hours simply is not good enough if the country falls in 150 hours - it would be throwing men to a possible suicide. America would certainly pre-position forces before acting with boots on the ground, and what naval assets are in striking range would not be enough to stop a Chinese effort. Japan would not get involved, as by their constitution as it stands at the moment, and they would give strong political pressure for America not to launch strikes from Japanese bases.
For America to aid Taiwan when enough assets have arrived, China will have had to do a God awful attempet at invading - while if China had taken the islands, I do not believe America could win without entering into near Total War with China. Chinas biggest threat to American forces would lie in the size of her airforce using land bases (which America could not engage without escalating the conflict to outside the Taiwan region), her overwhelming number of dug in boots on Taiwan, her diesel submarines (Chinas nuclear boats being crap), and naval minefields.
If I were to be involved in the conflict (which there is no chance of, I do not believe the UK recognises Taiwan), I would not expect to return alive.

Ive run out of steam, sory if the above isnt in great order, I didnt plan it out.
 
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